The Monday Touch Point on March 31, 2025, provides a detailed analysis of the Austin real estate market, focusing on key indicators such as market ratios, inventory levels, and builder incentives. This update offers valuable insights backed by data, making it a critical resource for anyone involved in buying, selling, or navigating the housing market. The information presented highlights current trends and offers a clear view of where the market is headed.

One of the most significant metrics discussed is the new listing-to-pending ratio, which dropped to 0.52 this week. This figure indicates that for every 1,000 new listings, only 520 properties are going under contract, a decline from the previous week’s 0.73. For March, the monthly ratio closed at 0.61—the lowest since July 2022. When this ratio falls below 1, it signals that more homes are entering the market than leaving it, leading to an increase in available inventory. For sellers, this suggests a need for competitive pricing to attract buyers in a market with growing options. Agents can use this data to guide clients toward effective strategies.

Inventory levels are rising sharply, with 12,332 active listings reported across the 6-county area, reflecting a 17.6% increase from the previous year. March recorded 5,218 new listings, up 5.1% from last year’s record high. However, pending sales have decreased by 15.7% compared to March 2024, resulting in a 5.03-month supply—the first time it has crossed the 5-month threshold in recent years. This shift is accompanied by 1,153 more price reductions than last March, pointing to a market tilting in favor of buyers. Buyers can leverage this trend to negotiate better deals, while sellers face increased pressure to adjust expectations.

Positive movement in the bond market offers a small but notable development. A drop in yields has lowered 30-year fixed mortgage rates from 6.75% to 6.625%. While this change is unlikely to trigger a dramatic surge in buyer activity, it provides a modest boost to affordability. Agents can highlight this improvement to encourage hesitant buyers, as even slight rate reductions can influence purchasing decisions in a competitive environment.

Builder incentives represent a critical factor shaping the market. Data shows some builders offering concessions as high as 8-10%, with Lennar providing 13.3% of the sales price—equivalent to $52,000 on a $400,000 home. According to Fannie Mae guidelines, concessions exceeding 3-9% (depending on down payment size) should reduce the reported sales price. This adjustment is not consistently applied, however, artificially inflating new home prices and creating challenges for resale properties. Sellers must consider this competition when setting prices, and agents can use this information to demonstrate the market dynamics to clients.

Looking forward, the market outlook suggests challenges ahead. Pending sales trends indicate a likely decline in sold properties over the next three months. While April may see a slight price increase, unsold homes are expected to drive price reductions by May. Current median prices remain 18.72% below the May 2022 peak, with a potential return to that level projected for July 2029 if trends persist. Timing will be essential for both buyers and sellers as the market continues to evolve.

For agents, proactive steps are key in this shifting landscape. Property previews reveal that 20% of recently viewed homes are overpriced former rentals, underscoring the importance of thorough market research. Listing opportunities are at a peak, with company inventory reaching record highs. Tools such as the new construction concession export, shared during the session, provide hard data to strengthen client discussions. Buyers and sellers benefit from understanding these trends, enabling informed decisions in a market that demands adaptability. This analysis equips all stakeholders with the knowledge to succeed as conditions change.
​

Daily Market Summary

13,697 (+20.4% YoY) : Active Residential Listings

0.59 Ratio : New Listing to Pending Ratio

97.30% : Sold Price to List Price Ratio

6.625% :  30-Year Weekly Mortgage Rate

4.321% : 10-Year Bond Yield

Timestamps 

0:12 - New Listing to Pending Ratio Update

1:53 - Open Houses Top 3,000 This Week

3:09 - Weekly New Listings and Price Drops

6:35 - Pending Transactions and Market Ratio

7:29 - Inventory Surge: Buyer Market Trajectory

8:02 - Year-over-Year Comparison: Inventory vs Demand

13:08 - March Monthly Stats Update

20:11 - Historic Ratio Trends Since 2000

22:49 - Demand Lagging: 21% Year-over-Year Drop

26:04 - Buyer Behavior & Sales Cycle Observations

34:44 - Percentile Analysis Breakdown

38:04 - Austin ZIP Code Deep Dive: 78747

40:03 - City-Level Activity Index Changes

43:45 - Price per Foot: Pending vs Sold Indicator

53:15 - Sold-to-List Price Ratio Historical Comparison

56:13 - Pending-to-Supply Index: Price Pressure Indicator

1:01:38 - Final Market Health Score Summary

1:04:01 - Economic Calendar Preview for This Week

The data never lies—and this week, it tells us that the market is in transition. As demand lags behind a rising inventory, especially in the more affordable price bands, we’re seeing early signs of pricing pressure. Buyers have options, and they’re taking their time. As fiduciaries, we must respond with patience, insight, and deep knowledge of local conditions.